Going Through First Seed Second Seed
Slovenia 83% 59% 24%
USA 50% 13% 37%
England 39% 28% 11%
Algeria 28% 0% 28%
Depending on which side you are on, you will probably dispute the title of this blog, however, it is only calculated based on the possibilities.
I am a fan of the USA soccer team and hope they somehow find a way to go all the way, but this had no affect on the percentages as they are what the numbers show.
So, basically, what I did was take the 9 possible results from the third rotation of Group C and then determine if there were any scenarios in which goal differential, goals scored, or drawn straws could determine final positions in the group. In those situations, I would determine of each possible sub-scenario how many times out of the total sub-scenarios for that scenario that each position could be achieved.
These result totals are listed below and are a breakdown of the data. After this is the actual scenarios themselves
Scenerio 1 Scenerio 2 Scenerio 3 Scenerio 4 Scenerio 5
Scenerio 6 Scenerio 7 Scenerio 8 Scenerio 9
Chance of 9 % Chance % Going Through
USA 50%
1st Place 0.50 0.00 0.67 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1.17 13%
2nd Place 0.50 1.00 0.33 0.00 1.00
0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00
3.33 37%
3rd Place 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00
0.50 0.50 0.00 0.00
2.00 22%
4th Place 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.00
2.5 28%
England 39%
1st Place 0.50 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00
2.5 28%
2nd Place 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00
1 11%
3rd Place 0.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.33
0.50 0.50 0.00 1.00
4.33 48%
4th Place 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.67
0.00 0.50 0.00 0.00
1.17 13%
Slovenia 83%
1st Place 0.00 1.00 0.33 0.00 1.00
1.00 1.00 0.00 1.00
5.33 59%
2nd Place 0.00 0.00 0.67 1.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.50 0.00
2.17 24%
3rd Place 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.50 0.00
1.5 17%
4th Place 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0 0%
Algeria 28%
1st Place 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0 0%
2nd Place 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 1.00 0.50 1.00
2.5 28%
3rd Place 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.67
0.00 0.00 0.50 0.00
1.17 13%
4th Place 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.33
1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
5.33 59%
I. US Win and England Win.
a. USA wins with a better goal difference than England's win:
1: USA
2: England
3: Slovenia
4. Algeria
b. USA wins with the same goal difference as England and the drawn straw is
in USA's favor:
1: USA
2: England
3: Slovenia
4. Algeria
c. USA wins with the same goal difference as England and the drawn straw is
in England's favor:
1: England
2: USA
3: Slovenia
4. Algeria
d. USA wins with a worse goal difference than England's win:
1: England
2: USA
3: Slovenia
4. Algeria
II. USA win and Slovenia win:
1. Slovenia
2. USA
3. England
4. Algeria
III. USA win and England/Slovenia draw:
a. USA's goal difference is better than 1:
1: USA
2: Slovenia
3: England
4. Algeria
b. USA's goal difference is 1 and the drawn straw is in USA's favor:
1: USA
2: Slovenia
3: England
4. Algeria
c. USA's goal difference is 1 and the drawn straw is in Slovenia's favor:
1: Slovenia
2: USA
3: England
4. Algeria
IV. USA/Algeria draw and England wins:
1: England
2: Slovenia
3: USA
4. Algeria
V. USA/Algeria draw and Slovenia wins:
a. England looses by more than 1 goal:
1: Slovenia
2: USA
3: Algeria
4. England
b. England looses by 1 goal and wins theoretical drawn straw:
1: Slovenia
2: USA
3: England
4. Algeria
c. England looses by 1 goal and Algeria win theoretical drawn straw:
1: Slovenia
2: USA
3: Algeria
4. England
VI. USA/Algeria draw and England/Slovenia draw:
a. USA's goals scored in final game is no less than one fewer than England's
goals scored in final match.
1: Slovenia
2: USA
3: England
4. Algeria
b. USA's goals scored in the final game is two fewer than England's and USA
wins drawn straw:
1: Slovenia
2: USA
3: England
4. Algeria
c. USA's goals scored in the final game is two fewer than England's and
England wins drawn straw.
1: Slovenia
2: England
3: USA
4. Algeria
d. USA's goals scored in the final game are more than two fewer than
England's:
1: Slovenia
2: England
3: USA
4. Algeria
VII. Algeria win and England Slovenia win:
a. USA goal differential is better in the final game than England's:
1: Slovenia
2: Algeria
3: USA
4. England
b. USA goal differential is the same as England in final game and
theoretical straw is in USA's favor:
1: Slovenia
2: Algeria
3: USA
4. England
c. USA's goal differential is the same as England in the final game and
theoretical straw is in England's favor:
1: Slovenia
2: Algeria
3: England
4. USA
d. USA's goal differential is worse than England in final game.
1: Slovenia
2: Algeria
3: England
4. USA
VIII. Algeria win and England win:
a. The goal difference in the two games is greater than 2:
1: England
2: Algeria
3: Slovenia
4. USA
b. The goal difference in the two games is 2:
1: England
2: Slovenia
3: Algeria
4. USA
IX. Algeria win and England/Slovenia draw:
1: Slovenia
2: Algeria
3: England
4. USA
Finally, here are the tie breaker criteria for the group stages:
World Cup Group Stage Tiebreakers
a) greatest number of points obtained in all group matches;
b) goal difference in all group matches;
c) greatest number of goals scored in all group matches.
If two or more teams are equal on the basis of the above three criteria, their rankings will be determined as follows:
d) greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned;
e) goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned;
f) greater number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned;
g) drawing of lots by the FIFA Organising Committee.
